This is calculated by projecting the goal differential for the remainder of the season using Shots For and Against per game and using shooting percentages and save percentages that are 2 parts league average, 1 part team average. (Ideally, I would separate it out by PP/PK/Even Strength shots and their respective league average save percentages, but the AHL doesn’t release those. Therefore, I made a mix, to try to incorporate PP). The goal differential is then used in this formula to calculate the points for games remaining and added to current points.
Current Playoff Projections
Things aren’t looking so hot for the Rampage. To get above a 57.5 points %, the Rampage need to get to 88 points. That means they need to go 20-7-5. This slightly over a 70% points percentage. For comparison, Ontario is 68.4% so far this year.
Since this is based on mostly regressing shooting and save percentages, I love Stockton because they are one of the best possession teams in the league (est Corsi Close of 53%/6th) but also the unluckiest team in the league with a PDO of 980. I’m projecting that to regress for them.
The Sunbelt Division is actually much better than it seems. Ontario, Texas and Stockton are all top 6 possession teams. Texas vs Stockton in the first round would be a fun matchup of the 3rd and 6th best possession teams.
Utica is Stockton East as they have the 5th best estimated Corsi Close and the 3rd worst PDO. That division is going to be a slaughterhouse come playoff time. Toronto, Albany and Utica are all top 5 teams in estimated Corsi Close. Utica vs Albany (1st) would be the only 1st round match-up featuring better possession teams than Texas vs Stockton.
I also found my earlier projections from January 5th. At the time Texas was 4th in the Sunbelt Division. I’m only including this to show that I liked them before this hot streak of theirs.