Point Equivalencies for the Rampage Rookies

I mentioned the points equivalencies on RWTH Live a few times, so I’m posting them below.

This year’s rookies:

rookies

 

AJ Greer gets his own section because he had a … lets say …. interesting year.  He started the season in the NCAA and was both bad and misused.   Due to this he moved to the QMJHL in December.  His QMJHL half-season was very successful as he was part of the title-winning Rouyn-Noranda Huskies (along with Julien Nantel).  Everything I’ve read said he got better throughout the year, so I included his QMJHL playoff stats below, so he gets 4 different point equivalencies.

AJ Greer’s point equivalency can be a Rampage fan Rorschach test.  “I think AJ Greer will score around 35 points” = Optimist. “I think AJ Greer will score below 20 points” = Pessimist.

I said on RWTH live that I think he will score around 35 points and around 20 goals, so I’m clearly on the optimistic side.

greer

 

Last year’s rookies for comparison:

last-year-rookies

 

 

You can see that point equivalencies absolutely nailed the CHL guys and were dramatically off for the European guys.  Part of that is that there aren’t enough guys going from the European leagues to the AHL, so I couldn’t find a Liiga-AHL equivalency.  For European leagues I combined the European League to NHL equivalency with the AHL equivalency, but clearly it’s not as good as the CHL equivalencies.  That is why Lindholm’s adjustment is red above.

The other thing to know is that these are more accurate for people in the middle than the outliers.  For instance, I doubt Compher actually scores 67 points because that is an insane projection for any first year pro (except Mikko apparently).  Meanwhile, having a point per game QMJHL player such as Greer or Ouellete-St.Amant projected as a 30-35 point AHL player should be relatively accurate.

Here are all of the equivalencies used:

point-equivalencies

 

Point Equivalencies sources:

http://www.behindthenet.ca/projecting_to_nhl.php

http://hockeyanalytics.com/Research_files/League_Equivalencies.pdf

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