Estimating Rampage Points/60

Hockey playing time is typically distributed by line number.  First liners will almost always play more than 2nd liners who play more than 3rd, who play more than 4th. First Liners also get Power Play opportunities, therefore, even if a 1st liner isn’t the most talented player, he will typically have more total points just due to playing time and PP opportunities.  One way to equalize this and more accurately compare players is to compare them by time played and 5on5 points only.  This is typically done by comparing points per 60 minutes of 5 on 5 played.

I reviewed every Rampage game for this season, counting every 5on5 Goal, 5on5 primary assist, 5on5 secondary assist and also calculated how much of the game was spent at 5 on 5 (related I probably need a girlfriend).

To get a player’s estimated 5on5 TOI for the season, I used eTOI as a % of 5on5 time and multiplied that by 5on5 time per game and multiplied that by the number of games played by this player.  For example, if someone has 15 mins of eTOI that is 25% of the game.  For the season, the Rampage have played an average of 46.63 minutes of 5on5 per game.  Therefore this player would be given 11.66 5 on 5 minutes per game played (25%*46.63mins).  If this player had played every single game this year, they would have a total 5on5 TOI of 466.26 minutes (11.66 mins * 40 games).

I tried mimicking behind the net’s point/60 chart (links below).  Since secondary assists are more luck than skill, I also did a separate primary point/60 chart.

Forwards

Here are the NHL Point/60 numbers for the year for Forwards having played over 20 games this year:  http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_statistics.php?ds=20&s=20&f1=2015_s&f2=5v5&f4=C+LW+RW&f7=20-&c=0+1+3+5+17+18+19+20#

01_18_16 forward points60

01_18_16 forward primary points60

Belzile’s numbers are all undefined because I haven’t seen him play, therefore I can’t estimate his TOI.  Meurs has 0 points, so I just deleted his row.

League Average Save % is lower in the AHL, so I would assume that P/60 would be higher in the AHL.  However, Mikko Rantanen’s point/60 is higher than the NHL’s current leader and his Goals/60 is comparable to Alex Ovechkin’s.  That’s how great he has been.  Rendulic surprised me as his points per 60 are comparable to Jaromir Jagr and Joe Pavelski.  My boy Schumacher’s Goals/60 is comparable to Jamie Benn and John Tavares!!!

Defenseman

For Comparison, here are the NHL Point/60 numbers for the year for Defensemen having played over 20 games this year (related: Erik Karlsson is incredible): http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_statistics.php?ds=20&s=20&f1=2015_s&f2=5v5&f4=D&f7=20-&c=0+1+3+5+17+18+19+20

01_18_16 defense points60

01_18_16 defense primary points60

Gormley has only played 3 games, so his Karlssonesque number is not meaningful.  Zadorov and Bigras were comparable to Victor Hedman (currently 5th in the NHL), so they will be missed.  Siemens’s points/60 explain why he’s constantly being passed over by the Avs despite being the most solid defenseman here.  His NHL comparable is Niklas Kronwall (#171).

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